I've been absolutely pummelled in the past month. My currently holdings have all but collapsed. I'm frustrated, and confused, but I'm not prepared to sell, I guess, since I still think that the companies I own are solid, have a good base of cash to get through the credit crunch, and as a result, are massively undervalued. FR is being discussed by a few analysts as a prime takeover tarket, which would be a relief to me, as it means I should at least get my money back out of it. Overall, as far as I can tell, they're basically victims of a market wide selloff, and that's got me jittery.
I've been expecting a bottom for probably about 3 months, but things just keep getting worse. So there goes my instincts. It's possible that this could be the greatest crash since '29. I have scoffed at this idea for months, as overall things seem to be humming along in the real world - people still have jobs, still pay their bills - not like the 30s, when a quarter of the population was out of work, and those who were employed saw their incomes decline by 42%. But marketwise, things are getting to the point where I'm just a little panicky. I was reading recently that the Japanese exchange had PE ratios in the range of 2 during their crisis in the 90s...that's scary.
But maybe my panick is a good sign. I keep envisioning the emotional charts - where people get the most frustrated at their investments just as things start to turn around. But I'm not over hopeful anymore, I just keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, as it were.
Anyone out there more optimistic?
Monday, October 6, 2008
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)